WASHINGTON – A military clash between China and one or more Southeast Asian nations involved in territorial disputes in the South China Sea has a 50-50 chance of occurring in 2015, the Council on Foreign Relations said.
The Washington-based think tank rated the sea controversy as one of 10 top US conflict prevention priorities in the coming year.
The CFR’s Center for Preventive Action upgraded from low to moderate the likelihood of territorial and jurisdictional disputes in the South China Sea escalating into fighting.
A low rating means a contingency is improbable to highly unlikely, a moderate rating means it has an even chance of occurring while a high rating means the contingency is probable to highly likely to occur.