IN chess, a good strategy is to move your pieces into position to strike but not to reveal your strength until you lower the boom. Lead your opponent into complacency then attack when there is nothing he can do.

Two years ago this column raised alarm about China’s ongoing construction in the South China Sea. Not that I was the only one, of course. But looking back very few people seemed concerned. I took that to mean, not that people didn’t care, but that many figured there was nothing to be done. No one was in the mood for a superpower confrontation in 2014.

At that time China sent dredging ships to the area of the Spratly Islands, an internationally contested region, and began constructing artificial islands. Even though China said the purpose of the islands was peaceful it soon became clear that they were building air bases and naval facilities.

When I pointed this out two years ago my column was met with criticism and derision by my Chinese friends and even officials of the Chinese government. Don’t be silly, they said. China would not deliberately provoke a crisis in the region, I was told. It is reckless for me to make such accusations without hard evidence, they said. Some urged me to retract my column and replace it with an apology to the Chinese government.

Back then there was one island approaching completion. Today there are ten, all of which have air or naval capabilities. The Chinese presence in the region now is massive. They could easily bring in hundreds of warplanes and dozens of ships and saturate the area with military might.

The Chinese strategy is clear. By moving slowly but deliberately, the Chinese have steadily increased their presence in the contested region until they cannot be put out without a major confrontation. Since there was no major change from week to week, no trigger moment, leaders in the Philippines and the United States have not been faced with a crisis, a time for decision.

http://www.mvariety.com/cnmi/cnmi-news/editorials/91946-bc-s-tales-of-the-pacific-china-s-strategy-in-the-south-china-sea