Yesterday in Brisbane US President Barack Obama reaffirmed the Asian Pivot/Rebalance (transcript) which he presented in Canberra three years ago. But in doing so he presented a view of Asia’s future, and especially of US-China relations, which was starker and darker than he gave in 2011. This makes the speech rather important. When future historians study the two speeches – and if they also look back to Obama’s first big speech in Asia, in Tokyo in November 2009 — they will see clear evidence of how far America’s sense of rivalry with China has intensified over the past five years, and especially over the past three years. They will see much less evidence of clear ideas about what America should do about it.
The significance of the President’s words about Asia and China were somewhat overshadowed by the remarkable passage in his speech about climate change. I’ll leave it to others to say what it might mean for climate policy, but it is worth noting what it means for relations between Canberra and Washington.