The Philippines will continue to use a carrot-and-stick strategy toward China in the South China Sea, choosing not to play up its recent victory in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in order to reach a compromise.

Fishing around the Scarborough Shoal will be a key area of cooperation that will move forward through bilateral talks.

The true resolution of boundary disputes in the region, however, will continue to be elusive, perhaps even delayed by agreements meant to defuse tension.

Analysis

Countries with competing claims in the South China Sea are still adjusting to a landmark ruling on maritime boundaries in the region. The Permanent Court of Arbitration announced July 12 its decision to invalidate China’s broad claims under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ruling in particular that the Scarborough Shoal has no islands and therefore no exclusive economic zone to claim. The decision marked a victory for the Philippines, for although Manila also counts the shoal as its own, Beijing occupies it. At the very least, the Philippines has managed to ensure that China cannot legally control the shoal and, by extension, has created an opening for other states lining the South China Sea to chip away at China’s position under UNCLOS.

But since its victory, the Philippines has played its hand carefully. Manila knows its position is weak — China’s military is vastly more powerful than its own. But the Philippines has gained an unprecedented (even if chiefly symbolic) win on the international stage. The ruling could cause significant headaches for China, and by conspicuously refraining from touting the ruling, Manila is incentivizing Beijing to offer compromise and accommodation. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, for example, has said he will not bring up the ruling at the September summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). By doing so, Manila can preserve its core interests and gain some concessions from China while continuing to cooperate with Japan, the United States and other outside powers. Within the context of this new dynamic, talk of an accord between Manila and Beijing has centered on one topic in particular: fishing.

http://www.manilatimes.net/conflict-cooperation-south-china-sea/303577/