On July 12, an International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) ruling dismissed much of China’s claim to the South China Sea. Since then, there has been a great deal of discussion on the legal ramifications, China’s response and public opinion.

But where does this ruling leave the U.S. alliance with the Philippines — the country that challenged China’s claims in the first place?

[Here’s what China’s people really think about the South China Sea]

The United States signed a Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines in 1951, making a commitment to come to Manila’s aid if the Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft are attacked. The treaty excludes the shoals and rocks of the South China Sea, specifically mentioning only help to defend the “metropolitan territory” of the Philippines and the “Pacific Area” — but the July ruling leaves the United States with an alliance security dilemma.

Specifically, the dilemma is how resolutely a state should commit to an ally and the cost this incurs with adversaries. A strong commitment can result in entrapment in an unwanted conflict with an alliance adversary, but a weak commitment engenders feelings of abandonment on the part of the ally and a weakened alliance. In this case, a stronger U.S. commitment to Manila angers Beijing, but a weaker commitment leaves Manila feeling unsupported.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/08/11/heres-how-the-south-china-sea-ruling-affects-u-s-interests/