We may be on the verge of serious trouble with China in Southeast Asia if Beijing continues to push its territorial claims in the South China Sea. While Secretary of State John Kerry was in Beijing recently attending an economic conference, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter was in Singapore meeting with other defense chiefs at a security conference known as the Shangri-La Dialogue. Both sought to warn China’s leaders that the South China Sea is a danger zone.
In Singapore, Carter directed criticism at China for its actions in Asia, charging that Beijing risked erecting a “Great Wall of self-isolation” with its aggressive policies. The following day, China’s deputy chief of the general staff, Admiral Sun Jianguo, leveled strong criticism at U.S. policies in East Asia, asserting that it encouraged and enabled smaller states to “bully” China. Referring to Carter’s speech, Admiral Sun declared: “We were not isolated in the past, we are not isolated now, and we will not be isolated in the future.” (WSJ, June 6).
Recently, I gave a UVa–sponsored seminar a hypothetical scenario dealing with crisis in the South China Sea. Here’s the case:
“The International Court has ruled that the Philippine claim to an area of rock formations in the South China Sea known as Scarborough Shoal is legal and that it has a right to the resources beneath it. China, which is not a member of the court, rejects the decision and reiterates its historical claim to most of the South China Sea. Recently the U.S. concluded a new defense agreement with the Philippines that reopens Clark air base to the U.S. Air Force and also permits our Navy to return to Subic Bay naval base. In addition, the U.S. will build three air bases in the southern Philippines facing South China Sea shipping lanes. The U.S. has also agreed to sell Vietnam modern weaponry. In return, Vietnam agreed to let the U.S. Navy use Cam Ranh Bay naval base, which the U.S. built during the Vietnam War. Further south, Singapore continues to permit the Navy to use its port facilities. New intelligence reports a flotilla of barges and dredging vessels has assembled at a Chinese port and is preparing for movement into the South China Sea. Several Chinese patrol craft are standing by to escort them to an unknown destination. The Philippine government is asking Washington how it will respond if these ships arrive at Scarborough Shoal and begin dredging operations. (China undertook a similar operation in the adjacent Spratly Islands in 2013-14 and constructed air fields and a port.)”

http://www.roanoke.com/opinion/commentary/nuechterlein-is-china-on-a-collision-course-in-the-south/article_38643263-c837-5823-92d6-a6f7f90928bd.html