It seems if the People’s Republic of China is going to make a push to radically alter the status-quo in the South China Sea—by reclaiming the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal that is clearly within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines—we now have a good idea of when that might happen: sometime between early September, after the G-20 summit being hosted in China, and the U.S. presidential election on November 8th.

The idea was laid out in a recent article in the South China Morning Post in an article dated August 13th. The report, quoting “a source familiar with the matter”, said that Beijing would not carry out any reclamation work on the Shoal before hosting the G-20 next month but could begin construction before America goes to the polls. “Since the G20 will be held in Hangzhou next month, and regional peace will be the main topic among leaders of the great powers, China will refrain from [acting on the] reclamation plan,” explained the source, who was not identified.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/report-china-could-make-big-move-the-south-china-starting-17350